With the Trump Administration implementing tariffs on a variety of foreign goods, the latest target is set to affect the trucking industry in a big way. A 25% tariff is set to take effect this week on imported vehicles and some vehicle components needed for American manufacturers. With this tariff in place, the cost of a new Class 8 truck could increase by as much as $30,000, per estimates from the American Trucking Associations. This is one of the many concerns experts are worried about in affecting the cost of trucks.
Another concern stems from recent decisions made by the EPA.
The Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA for short, recently announced plans to rollback emission standards that were previously set by the Biden Administration. Specifically, they plan to rollback on the Greenhouse Gas Phase 3 regulations and how they apply to commercial vehicles. Additionally, they are reevaluating the need for the 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrous Oxide (NOX rule). They also are looking at state specific rules, such as those laid out by the California Air Resources Board, also known as CARB.
These regulations originally were expected to result in a boom for the trucking industry.
Ahead of 2027, when most regulations would be implemented on truck manufacturers, experts anticipated a pre-buy boom for new trucks. Experts have long anticipated a surge in orders for new trucks, starting this year and continuing to grow in 2026. With the possible rollbacks, this could drastically be stilted, resulting possibly in no surge whatsoever. This would mean that the trucking industry economy, which many were hopeful would see a positive increase this year, could instead see a decline.
While they expect a decline, experts cannot predict for sure what will happen until rollback plans are finalized.
The process for the Environmental Protection Agency to repeal or modify the regulations is quite lengthy. This means there is a possibility for the process to take so long that the pre-buy boom still happens. However, simply because of the mention of rollbacks, many truck makers have accepted their fate of not having major sales. The FTR Transportation Intelligence has urged companies to reduce their fleets, after having previously urged them to increase them. The forecasts that they are releasing for Class 6, 7, and 8 trucks and tractors suggest that the sales will suffer due to all of the actions being taken by the Trump Administration, especially with the tariff common in this week.
